HUL vs FUL
Hull City (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 33.2% fair 3.01
Draw 26.5% fair 3.78
FUL win 40.3% fair 2.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.1% / 26.9% / 42.0%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.13
—
1.35
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 FUL | 12.8% | |
| HUL 0-1 FUL | 11.3% | |
| HUL 1-0 FUL | 9.4% | |
| HUL 1-2 FUL | 8.6% | |
| HUL 0-0 FUL | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).