Gameweek 37
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-23 14:00 | BOU vs CHE | 36.3% | 22.7% | 41.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | BRE vs HUL | 58.1% | 22.0% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | BHA vs LIV | 39.3% | 24.0% | 36.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | EVE vs ARS | 18.5% | 24.3% | 57.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | FUL vs COV | 56.0% | 23.1% | 21.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | LEE vs SUN | 50.7% | 24.6% | 24.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | MCI vs AVL | 60.7% | 19.9% | 19.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | NEW vs CRY | 53.6% | 22.4% | 24.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | NFO vs IPS | 50.2% | 24.6% | 25.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-23 14:00 | TOT vs MUN | 47.0% | 23.2% | 29.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.