BOU vs CHE
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 36.3% fair 2.76
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
CHE win 41.0% fair 2.44
Expected Goals
BOU
1.62
—
1.79
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.6% | fair 2.97 |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 CHE | 9.6% | |
| BOU 1-2 CHE | 8.6% | |
| BOU 2-1 CHE | 7.8% | |
| BOU 2-2 CHE | 7.0% | |
| BOU 0-1 CHE | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).