LEE vs SUN
Leeds United (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 50.7% fair 1.97
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
SUN win 24.6% fair 4.06
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.6% / 24.7% / 23.6%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.63
—
1.01
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 SUN | 11.8% | |
| LEE 1-0 SUN | 11.6% | |
| LEE 2-1 SUN | 9.6% | |
| LEE 2-0 SUN | 9.4% | |
| LEE 0-1 SUN | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).