NFO vs IPS
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 50.2% fair 1.99
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
IPS win 25.2% fair 3.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.1% / 24.8% / 24.1%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.62
—
1.03
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 IPS | 11.8% | |
| NFO 1-0 IPS | 11.4% | |
| NFO 2-1 IPS | 9.6% | |
| NFO 2-0 IPS | 9.3% | |
| NFO 0-1 IPS | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).