EVE vs ARS
Everton (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 18.5% fair 5.41
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
ARS win 57.2% fair 1.75
Expected Goals
EVE
0.71
—
1.64
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 0-1 ARS | 15.6% | |
| EVE 0-2 ARS | 12.8% | |
| EVE 1-1 ARS | 11.1% | |
| EVE 0-0 ARS | 9.5% | |
| EVE 1-2 ARS | 9.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).