MCI vs AVL
Manchester City (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 60.7% fair 1.65
Draw 19.9% fair 5.04
AVL win 19.5% fair 5.13
Expected Goals
MCI
2.25
—
1.15
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.0% | fair 2.94 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 AVL | 9.7% | |
| MCI 1-1 AVL | 8.6% | |
| MCI 2-0 AVL | 8.4% | |
| MCI 1-0 AVL | 7.5% | |
| MCI 3-1 AVL | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).