BHA vs LIV
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 39.3% fair 2.55
Draw 24.0% fair 4.18
LIV win 36.8% fair 2.72
Expected Goals
BHA
1.55
—
1.52
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 LIV | 10.9% | |
| BHA 2-1 LIV | 8.5% | |
| BHA 1-2 LIV | 8.3% | |
| BHA 1-0 LIV | 7.2% | |
| BHA 0-1 LIV | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).