Gameweek 38
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-30 15:00 | ARS vs BHA | 58.0% | 22.1% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | AVL vs TOT | 47.4% | 23.2% | 29.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | CHE vs BRE | 52.3% | 21.8% | 25.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | COV vs NFO | 31.2% | 26.5% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | CRY vs LEE | 42.0% | 25.5% | 32.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | HUL vs NEW | 26.8% | 23.8% | 49.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | IPS vs EVE | 36.2% | 25.9% | 37.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | LIV vs BOU | 60.8% | 20.5% | 18.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | MUN vs FUL | 45.9% | 24.7% | 29.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 15:00 | SUN vs MCI | 18.1% | 19.1% | 62.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.