HUL vs NEW
Hull City (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 26.8% fair 3.73
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
NEW win 49.4% fair 2.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.7% / 23.8% / 52.5%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.08
—
1.73
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 NEW | 11.3% | |
| HUL 0-1 NEW | 10.4% | |
| HUL 1-2 NEW | 9.7% | |
| HUL 0-2 NEW | 9.0% | |
| HUL 1-0 NEW | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).