AVL vs TOT
Aston Villa (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 47.4% fair 2.11
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
TOT win 29.4% fair 3.40
Expected Goals
AVL
1.79
—
1.36
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 TOT | 10.5% | |
| AVL 2-1 TOT | 9.3% | |
| AVL 1-0 TOT | 7.7% | |
| AVL 1-2 TOT | 7.1% | |
| AVL 2-0 TOT | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).