ARS vs BHA
Arsenal (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 58.0% fair 1.72
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
BHA win 19.9% fair 5.03
Expected Goals
ARS
1.92
—
0.98
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 1-0 BHA | 10.6% | |
| ARS 1-1 BHA | 10.4% | |
| ARS 2-0 BHA | 10.1% | |
| ARS 2-1 BHA | 9.9% | |
| ARS 3-0 BHA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).