LIV vs BOU
Liverpool (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 60.8% fair 1.64
Draw 20.5% fair 4.89
BOU win 18.7% fair 5.35
Expected Goals
LIV
2.13
—
1.03
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-1 BOU | 9.9% | |
| LIV 2-0 BOU | 9.6% | |
| LIV 1-1 BOU | 9.3% | |
| LIV 1-0 BOU | 9.0% | |
| LIV 3-1 BOU | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).