IPS vs EVE
Ipswich Town (home) vs Everton · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 36.2% fair 2.77
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
EVE win 37.9% fair 2.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.6% / 26.3% / 39.1%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.26
—
1.35
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 EVE | 12.5% | |
| IPS 0-1 EVE | 9.9% | |
| IPS 1-0 EVE | 9.2% | |
| IPS 1-2 EVE | 8.5% | |
| IPS 2-1 EVE | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).