MUN vs FUL
Manchester United (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 45.9% fair 2.18
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
FUL win 29.4% fair 3.40
Expected Goals
MUN
1.58
—
1.21
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 FUL | 11.7% | |
| MUN 1-0 FUL | 9.7% | |
| MUN 2-1 FUL | 9.3% | |
| MUN 2-0 FUL | 7.7% | |
| MUN 0-1 FUL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).