SUN vs MCI
Sunderland (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 18.1% fair 5.51
Draw 19.1% fair 5.24
MCI win 62.8% fair 1.59
Expected Goals
SUN
1.00
—
2.30
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 0-2 MCI | 9.8% | |
| SUN 1-2 MCI | 9.8% | |
| SUN 0-1 MCI | 8.5% | |
| SUN 1-1 MCI | 8.5% | |
| SUN 0-3 MCI | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).