CRY vs LEE
Crystal Palace (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 42.0% fair 2.38
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
LEE win 32.5% fair 3.07
Expected Goals
CRY
1.44
—
1.25
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 LEE | 12.2% | |
| CRY 1-0 LEE | 9.7% | |
| CRY 2-1 LEE | 8.8% | |
| CRY 0-1 LEE | 8.4% | |
| CRY 1-2 LEE | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).