COV vs NFO
Coventry City (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 31.2% fair 3.21
Draw 26.5% fair 3.77
NFO win 42.3% fair 2.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.6% / 27.0% / 44.4%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.05
—
1.38
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 NFO | 12.8% | |
| COV 0-1 NFO | 12.2% | |
| COV 1-0 NFO | 9.3% | |
| COV 0-0 NFO | 8.8% | |
| COV 1-2 NFO | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).