CHE vs BRE
Chelsea (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 52.3% fair 1.91
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
BRE win 25.9% fair 3.86
Expected Goals
CHE
2.02
—
1.34
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.8% | fair 2.87 |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 BRE | 9.5% | |
| CHE 1-1 BRE | 9.4% | |
| CHE 2-0 BRE | 7.1% | |
| CHE 1-0 BRE | 7.0% | |
| CHE 3-1 BRE | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).