NEW vs CRY
Newcastle United (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 53.6% fair 1.87
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
CRY win 24.0% fair 4.17
Expected Goals
NEW
1.91
—
1.17
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 CRY | 10.3% | |
| NEW 2-1 CRY | 9.8% | |
| NEW 1-0 CRY | 8.7% | |
| NEW 2-0 CRY | 8.3% | |
| NEW 3-1 CRY | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).