TOT vs MUN
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 47.0% fair 2.13
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
MUN win 29.8% fair 3.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.3% / 23.1% / 29.7%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.79
—
1.38
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 MUN | 10.4% | |
| TOT 2-1 MUN | 9.3% | |
| TOT 1-0 MUN | 7.6% | |
| TOT 1-2 MUN | 7.2% | |
| TOT 2-0 MUN | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).