FUL vs COV
Fulham (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 56.0% fair 1.79
Draw 23.1% fair 4.34
COV win 21.0% fair 4.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.9% / 22.9% / 19.2%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.81
—
0.93
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-0 COV | 11.7% | |
| FUL 1-1 COV | 10.9% | |
| FUL 2-0 COV | 10.5% | |
| FUL 2-1 COV | 9.8% | |
| FUL 0-0 COV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).