BRE vs HUL
Brentford (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 58.1% fair 1.72
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
HUL win 19.9% fair 5.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.4% / 21.7% / 18.0%.
Expected Goals
BRE
1.93
—
0.95
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-0 HUL | 10.8% | |
| BRE 2-0 HUL | 10.5% | |
| BRE 1-1 HUL | 10.3% | |
| BRE 2-1 HUL | 9.9% | |
| BRE 3-0 HUL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).