ARS vs NFO
Arsenal (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 67.2% fair 1.49
Draw 20.5% fair 4.89
NFO win 12.3% fair 8.12
Expected Goals
ARS
1.94
—
0.59
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 38.3% | fair 2.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 1-0 NFO | 15.4% | |
| ARS 2-0 NFO | 14.9% | |
| ARS 3-0 NFO | 9.6% | |
| ARS 1-1 NFO | 9.2% | |
| ARS 2-1 NFO | 8.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.9 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).