SUN vs BOU
Sunderland (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 33.3% fair 3.01
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
BOU win 42.5% fair 2.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.6% / 24.2% / 44.2%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.33
—
1.62
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.4% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 BOU | 11.3% | |
| SUN 1-2 BOU | 9.1% | |
| SUN 0-1 BOU | 8.4% | |
| SUN 2-1 BOU | 7.5% | |
| SUN 1-0 BOU | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).