CHE vs EVE
Chelsea (home) vs Everton · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 56.3% fair 1.78
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
EVE win 21.3% fair 4.69
Expected Goals
CHE
1.90
—
1.03
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 EVE | 10.5% | |
| CHE 1-0 EVE | 10.1% | |
| CHE 2-1 EVE | 9.9% | |
| CHE 2-0 EVE | 9.6% | |
| CHE 3-1 EVE | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).