IPS vs MCI
Ipswich Town (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 18.3% fair 5.47
Draw 18.0% fair 5.57
MCI win 63.8% fair 1.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 14.1% / 17.0% / 68.9%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.07
—
2.52
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.6% | fair 3.27 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-2 MCI | 9.4% | |
| IPS 0-2 MCI | 8.8% | |
| IPS 1-3 MCI | 7.9% | |
| IPS 1-1 MCI | 7.5% | |
| IPS 0-3 MCI | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).