LIV vs BRE
Liverpool (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 58.6% fair 1.71
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
BRE win 19.9% fair 5.04
Expected Goals
LIV
1.99
—
1.02
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 BRE | 10.0% | |
| LIV 2-1 BRE | 10.0% | |
| LIV 1-0 BRE | 9.8% | |
| LIV 2-0 BRE | 9.8% | |
| LIV 3-1 BRE | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).