COV vs TOT
Coventry City (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 27.3% fair 3.66
Draw 22.9% fair 4.37
TOT win 49.8% fair 2.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.9% / 22.7% / 53.4%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.17
—
1.86
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 TOT | 10.5% | |
| COV 1-2 TOT | 9.8% | |
| COV 0-1 TOT | 9.0% | |
| COV 0-2 TOT | 8.4% | |
| COV 2-1 TOT | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).