MUN vs LEE
Manchester United (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 45.2% fair 2.21
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
LEE win 29.9% fair 3.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.2% / 25.0% / 29.8%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.56
—
1.22
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 LEE | 11.8% | |
| MUN 1-0 LEE | 9.7% | |
| MUN 2-1 LEE | 9.2% | |
| MUN 0-1 LEE | 7.6% | |
| MUN 2-0 LEE | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).