AVL vs NEW
Aston Villa (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 43.5% fair 2.30
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
NEW win 32.6% fair 3.06
Expected Goals
AVL
1.64
—
1.40
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 NEW | 11.0% | |
| AVL 2-1 NEW | 9.0% | |
| AVL 1-0 NEW | 7.8% | |
| AVL 1-2 NEW | 7.7% | |
| AVL 0-1 NEW | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).