FUL vs IPS
Fulham (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 51.9% fair 1.93
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
IPS win 24.7% fair 4.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.1% / 23.4% / 23.6%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.77
—
1.10
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.2% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 IPS | 11.0% | |
| FUL 1-0 IPS | 10.0% | |
| FUL 2-1 IPS | 9.8% | |
| FUL 2-0 IPS | 8.9% | |
| FUL 0-1 IPS | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).