LEE vs ARS
Leeds United (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 19.8% fair 5.04
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
ARS win 56.4% fair 1.77
Expected Goals
LEE
0.78
—
1.70
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 0-1 ARS | 14.2% | |
| LEE 0-2 ARS | 12.1% | |
| LEE 1-1 ARS | 11.1% | |
| LEE 1-2 ARS | 9.4% | |
| LEE 0-0 ARS | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 14.2 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).