BRE vs AVL
Brentford (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 41.2% fair 2.43
Draw 24.2% fair 4.14
AVL win 34.7% fair 2.88
Expected Goals
BRE
1.57
—
1.44
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 AVL | 11.1% | |
| BRE 2-1 AVL | 8.7% | |
| BRE 1-2 AVL | 8.0% | |
| BRE 1-0 AVL | 7.7% | |
| BRE 0-1 AVL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).