NEW vs COV
Newcastle United (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 65.5% fair 1.53
Draw 18.8% fair 5.31
COV win 15.7% fair 6.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.0% / 18.0% / 13.1%.
Expected Goals
NEW
2.31
—
0.90
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.9% | fair 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 2-0 COV | 10.8% | |
| NEW 2-1 COV | 9.7% | |
| NEW 1-0 COV | 9.4% | |
| NEW 1-1 COV | 8.4% | |
| NEW 3-0 COV | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).