TOT vs CHE
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 38.1% fair 2.62
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
CHE win 39.1% fair 2.56
Expected Goals
TOT
1.67
—
1.73
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.0% | fair 2.94 |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 CHE | 9.6% | |
| TOT 1-2 CHE | 8.4% | |
| TOT 2-1 CHE | 8.0% | |
| TOT 2-2 CHE | 7.0% | |
| TOT 0-1 CHE | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).