MCI vs LIV
Manchester City (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 87% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 47.3% fair 2.11
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
LIV win 29.2% fair 3.42
Expected Goals
MCI
1.75
—
1.32
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 1-1 LIV | 10.7% | |
| MCI 2-1 LIV | 9.4% | |
| MCI 1-0 LIV | 8.1% | |
| MCI 1-2 LIV | 7.1% | |
| MCI 2-0 LIV | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).