CRY vs AVL
Crystal Palace (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 35.6% fair 2.81
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
AVL win 40.0% fair 2.50
Expected Goals
CRY
1.40
—
1.54
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 AVL | 11.4% | |
| CRY 1-2 AVL | 8.8% | |
| CRY 0-1 AVL | 8.1% | |
| CRY 2-1 AVL | 8.0% | |
| CRY 1-0 AVL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).