COV vs MUN
Coventry City (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
MUN win 47.1% fair 2.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.1% / 23.8% / 50.1%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.17
—
1.72
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 MUN | 11.2% | |
| COV 1-2 MUN | 9.6% | |
| COV 0-1 MUN | 9.5% | |
| COV 0-2 MUN | 8.2% | |
| COV 2-1 MUN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).