MCI vs BRE
Manchester City (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 63.8% fair 1.57
Draw 18.7% fair 5.34
BRE win 17.4% fair 5.74
Expected Goals
MCI
2.39
—
1.11
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.2% | fair 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 BRE | 9.6% | |
| MCI 2-0 BRE | 8.7% | |
| MCI 1-1 BRE | 8.0% | |
| MCI 3-1 BRE | 7.6% | |
| MCI 1-0 BRE | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).