ARS vs TOT
Arsenal (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 66.3% fair 1.51
Draw 19.4% fair 5.17
TOT win 14.4% fair 6.96
Expected Goals
ARS
2.16
—
0.80
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 TOT | 12.1% | |
| ARS 1-0 TOT | 11.2% | |
| ARS 2-1 TOT | 9.7% | |
| ARS 1-1 TOT | 9.0% | |
| ARS 3-0 TOT | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).