HUL vs BOU
Hull City (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 31.1% fair 3.21
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
BOU win 44.5% fair 2.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.6% / 24.5% / 47.0%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.22
—
1.63
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 BOU | 11.5% | |
| HUL 0-1 BOU | 9.5% | |
| HUL 1-2 BOU | 9.4% | |
| HUL 0-2 BOU | 7.7% | |
| HUL 1-0 BOU | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).