SUN vs NEW
Sunderland (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 28.5% fair 3.51
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
NEW win 47.7% fair 2.10
Expected Goals
SUN
1.19
—
1.72
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 NEW | 11.2% | |
| SUN 1-2 NEW | 9.6% | |
| SUN 0-1 NEW | 9.4% | |
| SUN 0-2 NEW | 8.1% | |
| SUN 2-1 NEW | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).