LIV vs CHE
Liverpool (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 52.8% fair 1.89
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
CHE win 24.9% fair 4.02
Expected Goals
LIV
1.92
—
1.23
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 CHE | 10.1% | |
| LIV 2-1 CHE | 9.7% | |
| LIV 1-0 CHE | 8.2% | |
| LIV 2-0 CHE | 7.9% | |
| LIV 3-1 CHE | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).