IPS vs LEE
Ipswich Town (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 35.2% fair 2.84
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
LEE win 39.8% fair 2.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.2% / 25.2% / 41.5%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.30
—
1.49
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 LEE | 11.9% | |
| IPS 0-1 LEE | 9.1% | |
| IPS 1-2 LEE | 8.8% | |
| IPS 1-0 LEE | 8.0% | |
| IPS 2-1 LEE | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).