FUL vs EVE
Fulham (home) vs Everton · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 42.8% fair 2.34
Draw 27.2% fair 3.68
EVE win 30.0% fair 3.33
Expected Goals
FUL
1.32
—
1.06
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | fair 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 EVE | 13.0% | |
| FUL 1-0 EVE | 12.2% | |
| FUL 0-1 EVE | 9.8% | |
| FUL 0-0 EVE | 9.3% | |
| FUL 2-1 EVE | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).