BHA vs NFO
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 58.6% fair 1.71
Draw 21.7% fair 4.60
NFO win 19.7% fair 5.09
Expected Goals
BHA
1.96
—
0.98
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-0 NFO | 10.4% | |
| BHA 2-0 NFO | 10.2% | |
| BHA 1-1 NFO | 10.1% | |
| BHA 2-1 NFO | 10.0% | |
| BHA 3-0 NFO | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).