NFO vs SUN
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 48.6% fair 2.06
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
SUN win 25.4% fair 3.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.1% / 26.3% / 24.6%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.48
—
0.96
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-0 SUN | 12.8% | |
| NFO 1-1 SUN | 12.4% | |
| NFO 2-0 SUN | 9.5% | |
| NFO 2-1 SUN | 9.2% | |
| NFO 0-0 SUN | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).