BRE vs FUL
Brentford (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 48.2% fair 2.07
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
FUL win 27.4% fair 3.65
Expected Goals
BRE
1.65
—
1.17
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 FUL | 11.5% | |
| BRE 1-0 FUL | 9.9% | |
| BRE 2-1 FUL | 9.5% | |
| BRE 2-0 FUL | 8.1% | |
| BRE 0-1 FUL | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).