AVL vs COV
Aston Villa (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 64.5% fair 1.55
Draw 19.4% fair 5.17
COV win 16.1% fair 6.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.9% / 18.6% / 13.6%.
Expected Goals
AVL
2.24
—
0.89
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 2-0 COV | 11.0% | |
| AVL 1-0 COV | 9.8% | |
| AVL 2-1 COV | 9.8% | |
| AVL 1-1 COV | 8.7% | |
| AVL 3-0 COV | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).